Europe at a Crossroads: Will Leaders Wake Up Before It’s Too Late?
Europe’s tragedy of the 21st century: its lack of imagination and short memory on how easily peace can collapse.
Are EU and national leaders aware how serious the situation is?
There is a real 30-40% chance that the European Union breaks up or ceases to exist in its current form. This could be full fragmentation or a partial one where "core" countries, committed to deep integration (internal market, Schengen, Eurozone, defense union, etc.), form a new alliance or remake the rules, excluding members that actively sabotage Europe’s future.
Why?
In November 2024, the US Director of National Intelligence warned that Russia is using its intelligence services to sabotage Europe’s defense industrial base, recruiting criminals and proxies to attack military installations, defense firms, logistics, and utilities.
This is part of a global battle of grand strategies where Russia, and shockingly, the "new right" of the US administration, are winning.
It is not difficult because the EU barely has a strategy or narrative to counter it. Nationalism is appealing, tapping into powerful emotions with effective manipulation that would make George Orwell turn in his grave (capitulation = "peace," democratically elected leader = "dictator," refusing to obey a bully = "disrespectful," etc.).
Meanwhile, Europe struggles to find its own voice, having lost the muscles it wasn’t supposed to use again. It naively trusted its Transatlantic partner that the post-WW2 Bretton Woods system of economic stability and security guarantees would last forever—until recently, when it was hijacked and turned against it.
Terror attacks on European soil are becoming normalized. Terror-supporters march weekly with growing audacity, and foreign interference in elections is increasingly aggressive, pulling European societies apart by eroding the center.
Europe’s social spending and market economy have created prosperity, but the honeymoon from history is over. The awakening may be harder than expected. We can’t afford minimal growth, declining competitiveness, and the fantasy that wars and self-defence are relics of the past.
Technologically, we risk becoming a backwater. While there are local champions, global players increasingly ignore Europe rather than follow its regulations. AI will disrupt labor markets and pose geostrategic risks regarding services, data, and governance. Add humanoid robots and automation, and the outlook darkens further.
The house is on fire, and we complain about stale popcorn while watching TV.
This is an emergency, and the costs of fixing it are rising exponentially.
We need focus.
We need crisis management.
We need new legal and governance frameworks.
We need to let go of non-priority policies.
We need agile and effective leadership.
Most importantly, we need an ambitious new story to rally behind.
Major disruptions, possibly more war, are coming.
Do Europeans understand the paradigm shift?
Leaders: please save the EU while you still can.
